SIGNALS
On-Chain Risk Layers
Concentration
Weight: 30%top10_holder_pct → score: 0–20% → 80–100 (distributed supply) 20–50% → 40–80 (moderate concentration) 50–80% → 5–40 (high concentration) >80% → 0–5 (critical concentration)
Well-distributed supply = manipulation resistance. Top-10 whales controlling 80%+ = rug risk.
Holder concentration is the primary rug-pull indicator. Distributed supply provides manipulation resistance.
Liquidity Health
Weight: 25%score = clamp(liquidity_to_mcap / 0.10 × 100, 0, 100) ratio = 0.00 → 0 (no liquidity) ratio = 0.05 → 50 (thin) ratio = 0.10+ → 100 (healthy)
Liquidity/market cap ratio. Low ratio = easy to dump, high slippage. Saturates at 10%.
Healthy liquidity allows large trades without massive price impact. Thin liquidity = danger zone.
Contract Maturity
Weight: 20%contract_age_days → score: 0d → 0 30d → 30 (early stage) 90d → 60 (established) 180d → 90 (mature) 365d+ → 100
Older contracts have survived longer without exit events. New = unproven.
Time in market is a strong trust signal. New contracts are inherently riskier.
Transfer Quality
Weight: 15%score = clamp(transfer_pattern_score, 0, 100) 0 → wash trading / circular transfers detected 100 → organic, diverse counterparty distribution
Organic transfer patterns indicate real user adoption vs bot-inflated activity.
Wash trading and circular transfers are red flags. Organic distribution indicates genuine adoption.
Dev Exposure
Weight: 10%score = clamp(100 - dev_wallet_pct / 20 × 100, 0, 100) dev_pct = 0% → 100 (no dev exposure) dev_pct = 5% → 75 dev_pct = 10% → 50 dev_pct = 20% → 0 (critical)
Dev wallet holdings = single point of failure. Above 20% = critical rug-pull risk.
Large dev holdings create a centralized point of failure. Lower is safer.